BlackCheck: Do the Epstein Files Really Matter?
Here's what polling data, internet trends and the actual law tell us about the release of the Epstein files.
ContrabandCamp’s BlackCheck scale uses data, facts peer-reviewed research to assess statements based on truthfulness, accuracy, and the level of racism.
On Nov. 19, 2025, President Donald J. Trump signed the Epstein Files Transparency Act, requiring the attorney general to release all documents related to the Department of Justice’s 20-year investigation into child sex traffickers Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell.
Two weeks later, on Dec. 4, the Department of Homeland Security launched Operation Metro Surge. Described by the Trump administration as the “largest federal immigration enforcement operation ever” (apparently, they don’t count the estimated 1.3 million deportees in Operation Wetback), the two-month crackdown on immigrants has resulted in the deaths of at least two American citizens. (For comparison, two months after Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin murdered George Floyd, two deaths were connected to protests in Minneapolis).
Meanwhile, the economy was in shambles. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in January, the number of U.S. job openings reached its lowest point since Sept. 2020, during the height of the COVID pandemic. As prices for food, utilities and health care increased in January, Trump threatened to levy tariffs against America’s closest European allies if they didn’t hand over Greenland.
Democracy was doing even worse. Aside from his obsession with Greenland, Trump also expressed a desire to “take over” elections and “nationalize the vote.” Last week, Trump's spy chief, Tulsi Gabbard, led an FBI raid on an election center in Fulton County, Ga. This was after the U.S. military invaded a sovereign country and abducted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Trump officials charged Maduro with cocaine distribution and weapons offenses a month after former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez received a presidential pardon for his conviction on cocaine distribution and weapons offenses.
Then, on Friday, Jan. 30, the Department of Justice released more than 3.5 million pages of interviews, videos and emails from the Epstein files.
The release has sparked two competing theories.
The Claims
According to pundits, politicians and people who hold prejudices against fascist, racist pedophiles, every act of incompetence, racism and authoritarianism from this administration was a desperate attempt to distract from the Epstein files. Apparently, these tariff threats, ICE occupations, election raids, corruption scandals, colonizing controversies and military invasions were all part of a carefully constructed ruse to make Americans forget about the Epstein files.
Or …
An equal and opposite alternate theory proposed that Trump released the Epstein files to distract from his failures. In this conspiracy theory, Trump released the Epstein files to distract from a failing economy, public furor over ICE, an unconstitutional assault on democratic elections, accusations of corruption and international condemnation.
Which one is true?
While it is impossible to know what motivated Donald Trump, Pam Bondi and the Trump administration to withhold or release the Epstein files, it is possible to figure out if the basic premise of these claims are true. Specifically, we wanted to answer two questions:
How did withholding/releasing the Epstein files from the public affect Americans’ opinion of Donald Trump?
How did the contents of the Epstein files affect public opinion of Donald Trump?
We essentially wanted to know if the Epstein files actually mattered.
Here’s what we found.
